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Browsing by Author "Balaia, Jorge"

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  • Enhancing Recurrence-Free Survival Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Time-Updated Model Incorporating Tumor Burden and AFP Dynamics.
    Publication . Akabane, Miho; Kawashima, Jun; Altaf, Abdullah; Woldesenbet, Selamawit; Cauchy, François; Aucejo, Federico; Popescu, Irinel; Kitago, Minoru; Martel, Guillaume; Ratti, Francesca; Aldrighetti, Luca; Poultsides, George A; Imaoka, Yuki; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Endo, Itaru; Gleisner, Ana; Pinto Marques, Hugo; Oliveira, Sara; Balaia, Jorge; Lam, Vincent; Hugh, Tom; Bhimani, Nazim; Shen, Feng; Pawlik, Timothy M
    Background: Existing models to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) rely on static preoperative factors such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and tumor burden score (TBS). These models overlook dynamic postoperative AFP changes, which may reflect evolving recurrence risk. We sought to develop a dynamic, real-time model integrating time-updated AFP values with TBS for improved recurrence prediction. Patients and methods: Patients undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC (2000-2023) were identified from an international, multi-institutional database with RFS as the primary outcome. AFP trajectory was monitored from preoperative to 6- and 12-month postoperative values, using time-varying Cox regression with AFP as a time-dependent covariate. The predictive accuracy of this time-updated model was compared with a static preoperative Cox model excluding postoperative AFP. Results: Among 1911 patients, AFP trajectories differed between recurrent and nonrecurrent cases. While preoperative AFP values were similar, recurrent cases exhibited higher AFP at 6 and 12 months. Multivariable analysis identified TBS (hazard ratio (HR):1.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.002-1.086]; p = 0.039) and postoperative log AFP dynamics (HR:1.216 [CI 1.132-1.305]; p < 0.001) as predictors. Contour plots depicted TBS's influence decreasing over time, while postoperative AFP became more predictive. The time-varying Cox model was created to update RFS predictions continuously on the basis of the latest AFP values. The preoperative Cox model, developed with age, AFP, TBS, and albumin-bilirubin score, had a baseline C-index of 0.61 [0.59-0.63]. At 6 months, the time-varying model's C-index was 0.70 [0.67-0.73] versus 0.59 [0.56-0.61] for the static model; at 12 months, it was 0.70 [0.66-0.73] versus 0.56 [0.53-0.59]. The model was made available online ( https://nm49jf-miho-akabane.shinyapps.io/AFPHCC/ ). Conclusions: Incorporating postoperative AFP dynamics into RFS prediction after HCC resection enhanced prediction accuracy over time, as TBS's influence decreased. This adaptive, time-varying model provides refined RFS predictions throughout follow-up.
    2025-08Text Open access Show more
  • Impact of Anatomical Resection on Non-transplantable Recurrence Among Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An International Multicenter Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Analysis.
    Publication . Kawashima, Jun; Endo, Yutaka; Khalil, Mujtaba; Woldesenbet, Selamawit; Akabane, Miho; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Ratti, Francesca; Marques, Hugo; Oliveira, Sara; Balaia, Jorge; Cauchy, François; Lam, Vincent; Poultsides, George; Kitago, Minoru; Popescu, Irinel; Martel, Guillaume; Gleisner, Ana; Hugh, Thomas J; Aldrighetti, Luca; Endo, Itaru; Pawlik, Timothy M
    Background: Among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the impact of anatomic resection (AR) versus non-anatomic resection (NAR) on non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) remains poorly defined. We sought to compare the risk of NTR among patients treated with AR versus NAR as the primary surgical strategy for HCC. Patients and methods: Patients with HCC within Milan criteria who underwent curative-intent resection between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method was utilized to compare short- and long-term outcomes among patients undergoing AR versus NAR. Results: Among 1038 patients, 747 (72.0%) patients underwent AR, while 291 (28.0%) patients underwent NAR. After IPTW adjustment, patients who underwent AR had better 5-year recurrence-free survival than individuals treated with NAR (63.9 vs. 52.0%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.99); however, there was no difference in 5-year overall survival (80.2 vs. 75.6%; HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.55-1.05). Notably, individuals who underwent AR were less likely to have a NTR versus individuals treated with NAR (3-year NTR 9.8 vs. 14.4%; HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.40-0.96). In particular, AR was associated with a lower risk of NTR among patients with a medium tumor burden score (TBS) (HR 0.53; 95% CI 0.28-0.99), while the benefit among patients with a low TBS was less pronounced (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.40-1.32). Conclusions: AR was associated with a lower risk of NTR and improved recurrence-free survival (RFS) among patients with HCC, especially individuals with higher TBS. An anatomically defined surgical approach should be strongly considered in patients with a higher HCC tumor burden.
    2025-09Text Open access Show more