Browsing by Author "Tsilimigras, D"
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- Application of Hazard Functions to Investigate Recurrence After Curative-Intent Resection for Hepatocellular CarcinomaPublication . Lima, H; Alaimo, L; Brown, Z; Endo, Y; Moazzam, Z; Tsilimigras, D; Shaikh, C; Resende, V; Guglielmi, A; Ratti, F; Aldrighetti, L; Pinto Marques, H; Soubrane, O; Lam, V; Poultsides, G; Popescu, I; Alexandrescu, S; Martel, G; Hugh, T; Endo, I; Shen, F; Pawlik, TBackground: Defining patterns and risk of recurrence can help inform surveillance strategies and patient counselling. We sought to characterize peak hazard rates (pHR) and peak time of recurrence among patients who underwent resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: 1434 patients who underwent curative-intent resection of HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Hazard, patterns, and peak rates of recurrence were characterized. Results: The overall hazard of recurrence peaked at 2.4 months (pHR: 0.0384), yet varied markedly. The incidence of recurrence increased with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 (29%), A (54%), and B (64%). While the hazard function curve for BCLC 0 patients was relatively flat (pHR: <0.0177), BCLC A patients recurred with a peak at 2.4 months (pHR: 0.0365). Patients with BCLC B had a bimodal recurrence with a peak rate at 4.2 months (pHR: 0.0565) and another at 22.8 months. The incidence of recurrence also varied according to AFP level (≤400 ng/mL: 52.6% vs. >400 ng/mL: 36.3%) and Tumor Burden Score (low: 73.7% vs. medium: 50.6% vs. high: 24.2%) (both p < 0.001). Conclusion: Recurrence hazard rates for HCC varied substantially relative to both time and intensity/peak rates. TBS and AFP markedly impacted patterns of hazard risk of recurrence.
- Effect of Surgical Margin Width on Patterns of Recurrence among Patients Undergoing R0 Hepatectomy for T1 Hepatocellular Carcinoma: an International Multi-Institutional AnalysisPublication . Tsilimigras, D; Sahara, K; Moris, D; Hyer, J; Paredes, A; Bagante, F; Merath, K; Farooq, A; Ratti, F; Pinto Marques, H; Soubrane, O; Azoulay, D; Lam, V; Poultsides, G; Popescu, I; Alexandrescu, S; Martel, G; Guglielmi, A; Hugh, T; Aldrighetti, L; Endo, I; Pawlik, TIntroduction: Although a positive surgical margin is a known prognostic factor for recurrence, the optimal surgical margin width in the context of an R0 resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still debated. The aim of the current study was to examine the impact of wide (> 1 cm) versus narrow (< 1 cm) surgical margin status on the incidence and recurrence patterns among patients with T1 HCC undergoing an R0 hepatectomy. Methods: Between 1998 and 2017, patients with T1 HCC who underwent R0 hepatectomy for stage T1 HCC were identified using an international multi-institutional database. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was estimated, and recurrence patterns were examined based on whether patients had a wide versus narrow resection margins. Results: Among 404 patients, median patient age was 66 years (IQR: 58-73). Most patients (n = 326, 80.7%) had surgical margin < 1 cm, while 78 (19.3%) patients had a > 1 cm margin. The majority of patients had early recurrences (< 24 months) in both margin width groups (< 1 cm: 70.3% vs > 1 cm: 85.7%, p = 0.141); recurrence site was mostly intrahepatic (< 1 cm: 77% vs > 1 cm: 61.9%, p = 0.169). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS among patients with margin < 1 cm were 77%, 48.9%, and 35.3% versus 81.7%, 65.8%, and 60.7% for patients with margin > 1 cm, respectively (p = 0.02). Among patients undergoing anatomic resection, resection margin did not impact RFS (3-year RFS: < 1 cm: 49.2% vs > 1 cm: 58.9%, p = 0.169), whereas in the non-anatomic resection group, margin width > 1 cm was associated with a better 3-year RFS compared to margin < 1 cm (86.7% vs 47.3%, p = 0.017). On multivariable analysis, margin > 1 cm remained protective against recurrence (HR = 0.50, 95%CI 0.28-0.89), whereas Child-Pugh B (HR = 2.13, 95%CI 1.09-4.15), AFP > 20 ng/mL (HR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.18-2.48), and presence of microscopic lymphovascular invasion (HR = 1.48, 95%CI 1.01-2.18) were associated with a higher hazard of recurrence. Conclusion: Resection margins > 1 cm predicted better RFS among patients undergoing R0 hepatectomy for T1 HCC, especially small (< 5 cm) HCC. Although resection margin width did not influence outcomes after anatomic resection, wider margins were more important among patients undergoing non-anatomic liver resections.
- Evaluation of the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular CarcinomaPublication . Sahara, K; Paredes, A; Merath, K; Tsilimigras, D; Bagante, F; Ratti, F; Pinto Marques, H; Soubrane, O; Beal, E; Lam, V; Poultsides, G; Popescu, I; Alexandrescu, S; Martel, G; Aklile, W; Guglielmi, A; Hugh, T; Aldrighetti, L; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator (SRC) aims to help predict patient-specific risk for morbidity and mortality. The performance of the SRC among an elderly population undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unknown. Methods: Patients > 70 years of age who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 1998 and 2017 were identified using a multi-institutional international database. To estimate the performance of SRC, 12 observed postoperative outcomes were compared with median SRC-predicted risk, and C-statistics and Brier scores were calculated. Results: Among 500 patients, median age was 75 years (IQR 72-78). Most patients (n = 324, 64.8%) underwent a minor hepatectomy, while 35.2% underwent a major hepatectomy. The observed incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) (3.2%) and renal failure (RF) (4.4%) exceeded the median predicted risk (VTE, 1.8%; IQR 1.5-3.1 and RF, 1.0%; IQR 0.5-2.0). In contrast, the observed incidence of 30-day readmission (7.0%) and non-home discharge (2.5%) was lower than median-predicted risk (30-day readmission, 9.4%; IQR 7.4-12.8 and non-home discharge, 5.7%; IQR 3.3-11.7). Only 57.8% and 71.2% of patients who experienced readmission (C-statistic, 0.578; 95%CI 0.468-0.688) or mortality (C-statistic, 0.712; 95%CI 0.508-0.917) were correctly identified by the model. Conclusion: Among elderly patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC, the SRC underestimated the risk of complications such as VTE and RF, while being no better than chance in estimating the risk of readmission. The ACS SRC has limited clinical applicability in estimating perioperative risk among elderly patients being considered for hepatic resection of HCC.
- Hepatocellular Carcinoma Tumour Burden Score to Stratify Prognosis After ResectionPublication . Tsilimigras, D; Moris, D; Hyer, J; Bagante, F; Sahara, K; Moro, A; Paredes, A; Mehta, R; Ratti, F; Pinto Marques, H; Silva, S; Soubrane, O; Lam, V; Poultsides, G; Popescu, I; Alexandrescu, S; Martel, G; Workneh, A; Guglielmi, A; Hugh, T; Aldrighetti, L; Endo, I; Sasaki, K; Rodarte, A; Aucejo, F; Pawlik, TBackground: Although the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has been largely adopted in clinical practice, recent studies have emphasized the need for further refinement and subclassification of this system. Methods: Patients who underwent hepatectomy with curative intent for BCLC-0, -A or -B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) between 2000 and 2017 were identified using a multi-institutional database. The tumour burden score (TBS) was calculated, and overall survival (OS) was examined in relation to TBS and BCLC stage. Results: Among 1053 patients, 63 (6·0 per cent) had BCLC-0, 826 (78·4 per cent) BCLC-A and 164 (15·6 per cent) had BCLC-B HCC. OS worsened incrementally with higher TBS (5-year OS 77·9, 61 and 39 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P < 0·001). No differences in OS were noted among patients with similar TBS, irrespective of BCLC stage (61·6 versus 58·9 per cent for BCLC-A/medium TBS versus BCLC-B/medium TBS, P = 0·930; 45 versus 13 per cent for BCLC-A/high TBS versus BCLC-B/high TBS, P = 0·175). Patients with BCLC-B HCC and a medium TBS had better OS than those with BCLC-A disease and a high TBS (58·9 versus 45 per cent; P = 0·005). On multivariable analysis, TBS remained associated with OS among patients with BCLC-A (medium TBS: hazard ratio (HR) 2·07, 95 per cent c.i. 1·42 to 3·02, P < 0·001; high TBS: HR 4·05, 2·40 to 6·82, P < 0·001) and BCLC-B (high TBS: HR 3·85, 2·03 to 7·30; P < 0·001) HCC. TBS could also stratify prognosis among patients in an external validation cohort (5-year OS 79, 51·2 and 28 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P = 0·010). Conclusion: The prognosis of patients with HCC varied according to the BCLC stage but was largely dependent on the TBS.
- Hospital Variation in Textbook Outcomes Following Curative-Intent Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: an International Multi-Institutional AnalysisPublication . Tsilimigras, D; Mehta, R; Merath, K; Bagante, F; Paredes, AZ; Farooq, A; Ratti, F; Pinto Marques, H; Silva, S; Soubrane, O; Lam, V; Poultsides, G; Popescu, I; Grigorie, R; Alexandrescu, S; Martel, G; Workneh, A; Guglielmi, A; Hugh, T; Aldrighetti, L; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: Composite measures such as "Textbook Outcome" (TO) may be superior to individual quality metrics to assess surgical care and hospital performance. However, the incidence and factors associated with TO after resection of HCC remain poorly defined. Methods: Hospital variation in the rates of TO, factors associated with achieving a TO and the impact of TO on long-term survival following resection for HCC were examined using an international multi-institutional database. Results: Among 605 patients who underwent curative-intent resection of HCC, the unadjusted incidence of TO ranged from 50.9% to 77.7%. While achievement of each individual quality metric was relatively high (range, 74.5-98.0%), an overall TO was achieved among only 62.3% (n = 377) of patients. At the hospital level, TO ranged from 54.3% to 72.9%. Patients with BCLC-0 HCC (referent BCLC-B/C; OR: 4.17, 95%CI: 1.62-10.7) and ALBI grade 1 (referent ALBI grade 2/3; OR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.06-2.11) had higher odds of achieving a TO. On multivariable analysis, TO was associated with improved overall survival (HR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.42-0.85). Conclusion: Roughly 6 in 10 patients achieved a TO following resection for HCC. When achieved, TO was associated with better long-term outcomes. TO is a simple composite measure of both short- and long-term outcomes among patients undergoing resection for HCC.
- A Machine-Based Approach to Preoperatively Identify Patients with the Most and Least Benefit Associated with Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: An International Multi-institutional Analysis of 1146 PatientsPublication . Tsilimigras, D; Mehta, R; Moris, D; Sahara, K; Bagante, F; Paredes, A; Moro, A; Guglielmi, A; Aldrighetti, L; Weiss, M; Bauer, T; Alexandrescu, S; Poultsides, G; Maithel, S; Pinto Marques, H; Martel, G; Pulitano, C; Shen, F; Soubrane, O; Koerkamp, B; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: Accurate risk stratification and patient selection is necessary to identify patients who will benefit the most from surgery or be better treated with other non-surgical treatment strategies. We sought to identify which patients in the preoperative setting would likely derive the most or least benefit from resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Methods: Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 1990 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A machine-based classification and regression tree (CART) was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on preoperative factors. Results: Among 1146 patients, CART analysis revealed tumor number and size, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and preoperative lymph node (LN) status as the strongest prognostic factors associated with OS among patients undergoing resection for ICC. In turn, four groups of patients with distinct outcomes were generated through machine learning: Group 1 (n = 228): single ICC, size ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade I, negative preoperative LN status; Group 2 (n = 708): (1) single tumor > 5 cm, (2) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 2/3, and (3) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 1, metastatic/suspicious LNs; Group 3 (n = 150): 2-3 tumors; Group 4 (n = 60): ≥ 4 tumors. 5-year OS among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 60.5%, 35.8%, 27.5%, and 3.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 47%, 27.2%, 6.8%, and 0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusions: The machine-based CART model identified distinct prognostic groups of patients with distinct outcomes based on preoperative factors. Survival decision trees may be useful as guides in preoperative patient selection and risk stratification.
- A Novel Online Prognostic Tool to Predict Long-Term Survival after Liver Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: The "Metro-Ticket" ParadigmPublication . Sahara, K; Tsilimigras, D; Mehta, R; Bagante, F; Guglielmi, A; Aldrighetti, L; Alexandrescu, S; Pinto Marques, H; Shen, F; Koerkamp, B; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: The aim of the current study was to develop an online calculator to predict survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on the "metro-ticket" paradigm. Methods: Between 1990 and 2016, patients who underwent liver resection for ICC were identified in an international multi-institutional database. The final multivariable model of survival was used to develop an online prognostic calculator of survival. Results: Among 643 patients, actual 5-year overall survival (OS) after resection for ICC was 42.7%. On multivariable analysis, CA19-9 > 200 (hazard ratio (HR), 2.62; 95% CI, 2.01-3.42), sum of the number and largest tumor size >7 (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.46-2.42), N1 disease (HR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.98-4.16), R1 resection (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.21-2.46), poor/undifferentiated tumor grade (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.25-2.44), major vascular invasion (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89) were significantly associated with survival and were included in the online calculator. The predictive accuracy of the model was good to very good as the C-statistics to predict 5-year OS was 0.696 in the training dataset and 0.672 with bootstrapping resamples (n = 5000) in the test dataset. Conclusion: A novel, online calculator was developed to estimate the 5-year survival probability for patients undergoing resection for ICC. This tool could help provide useful information to guide treatment decision-making and inform conversations about prognosis.
- Prognosis After Resection of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) Stage 0, A, and B Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Current BCLC ClassificationPublication . Tsilimigras, D; Bagante, F; Sahara, K; Moris, D; Hyer, J; Wu, L; Ratti, F; Pinto Marques, H; Soubrane, O; Paredes, A; Lam, V; Poultsides, G; Popescu, I; Alexandrescu, S; Martel, G; Workneh, A; Guglielmi, A; Hugh, T; Aldrighetti, L; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: Although the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has been largely adopted in clinical practice, recent studies have questioned the prognostic stratification of this classification schema, as well as the proposed treatment allocation of patients with a single large tumor. Methods: Patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for histologically proven hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) between 1998 and 2017 were identified using an international multi-institutional database. Overall survival (OS) among patients with BCLC stage 0, A, and B was examined. Patients with a single large tumor were classified as BCLC stage A1 and were independently assessed. Results: Among 814 patients, 68 (8.4%) were BCLC-0, 310 (38.1%) were BCLC-A, 279 (34.3%) were BCLC-A1, and 157 (19.3%) were BCLC-B. Five-year OS among patients with BCLC stage 0, A, A1, and B HCC was 86.2%, 69.0%, 56.9%, and 49.9%, respectively (p < 0.001). Among patients with very early- and early-stage HCC (BCLC 0, A, and A1), patients with BCLC stage A1 had the worst OS (p = 0.0016). No difference in survival was noted among patients undergoing surgery for BCLC stage A1 and B HCC (5-year OS: 56.9% vs. 49.9%; p = 0.259) even after adjusting for competing factors (hazard ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.54-1.28; p = 0.40). Conclusion: Prognosis following liver resection among patients with BCLC-A1 HCC was similar to patients presenting with BCLC-B tumors. Surgery provided acceptable long-term outcomes among select patients with BCLC-B HCC. Designation into BCLC stage B should not be considered an a priori contraindication to surgery.
- Prognostic Utility of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade for Short- and Long-Term Outcomes Following Hepatic Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: a Multi-Institutional Analysis of 706 PatientsPublication . Tsilimigras, D; Hyer, J; Moris, D; Sahara, K; Bagante, F; Guglielmi, A; Aldrighetti, L; Alexandrescu, S; Pinto Marques, H; Shen, F; Koerkamp, B; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: The objective of the current study was to define the impact of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade on short- as well as long-term outcomes among patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Methods: Patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC between 1990 and 2016 were identified using an international multi-institutional database. Clinicopathologic factors including ALBI score were assessed using bivariate and multivariable analyses, as well as standard survival analyses. Results: Among 706 patients, 453 (64.2%) patients had ALBI grade 1, 231 (32.7%) ALBI grade 2, and 22 (3.1%) had ALBI grade 3. After adjusting for all competing factors, patients with ALBI grade 2/3 had higher odds of a prolonged length-of-stay (>10 days, odds ratio [OR] = 2.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.47-3.80), perioperative transfusion (OR = 2.15, 95% CI:1.45-3.18) and 90-day mortality (OR = 2.50, 95% CI:1.16-5.38). Median and 5-year overall survival (OS) for the entire cohort was 41.5 months (IQR:15.7-107.8) and 39.8%, respectively. Of note, median OS incrementally worsened with increased ALBI grade: grade 1, 49.6 months (IQR:18.3-NR) vs grade 2, 29.6 months (IQR:12.6-98.4) vs grade 3, 16.9 months (IQR:6.5-32.4; P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, higher ALBI grade remained associated with higher hazards of death (grade 2/3: hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% CI:1.04-1.78). Conclusion: The ALBI score was associated with both short- and long-term outcomes following resection for ICC and could prove a useful surrogate marker to identify patients at risk for adverse outcomes.
- Therapeutic Index Associated with Lymphadenectomy Among Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Which Patients Benefit the Most from Nodal Evaluation?Publication . Sahara, K; Tsilimigras, D; Merath, K; Bagante, F; Guglielmi, A; Aldrighetti, L; Weiss, M; Bauer, T; Alexandrescu, S; Poultsides, G; Maithel, S; Pinto Marques, H; Martel, G; Pulitano, C; Shen, F; Soubrane, O; Koerkamp, B; Matsuyama, R; Endo, I; Pawlik, TBackground: Although lymph node metastasis (LNM) is an important prognostic indicator for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), the benefit and indication for lymphadenectomy remain unclear. Methods: Patients diagnosed with ICC between 1990 and 2016 were identified in the international multi-institutional dataset. To determine the survival benefit from lymphadenectomy, the therapeutic index was calculated by multiplying the frequency of LNM in a particular group of patients by the 3-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate of patients with LNM in that subgroup. Results: Among 471 patients who met the inclusion criteria, approximately half had LNM (n = 205, 43.5%). The median number of resected and metastatic LNs were 4 [interquartile range (IQR) 2-8] and 0 (IQR 0-1), respectively. Three-year CSS in the entire cohort was 29.9%, reflecting a therapeutic index value of 13.0. The therapeutic index was lower among patients with major vascular invasion (5.4), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) > 5.0 (8.2), and LNM in areas other than the hepatoduodenal ligament (5.2). Of note, a therapeutic index difference of more than 10 points was noted only when examining the number of LNs harvested [1-2 (4.1) vs. 3-6 (16.1) vs. ≥ 7 (17.8)]. Conclusion: The survival benefit derived from lymphadenectomy was poor among patients with major vascular invasion, CEA > 5.0, and LNM in areas other than the hepatoduodenal ligament. Resection of three or more LNs was associated with the highest therapeutic value among patients with LNM.